[AFRICA] UNCTAD Report 2026: FDI into Africa drops 26% — but greenfield projects hold firm

$70 billion in FDI to Africa in 2025, down 26% vs 2024. But strip out the Egyptian Ras El-Hekma effect, the picture is more nuanced. West Africa (+44%) leads the recovery per UNCTAD.

Afrique — Business.OI
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Africa attracted $70 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2025, a 26% decline from the $97 billion recorded in 2024. This is one of the headline findings of UNCTAD's World Investment Report 2026, published this month. Behind the figure, however, the reality is more nuanced than it first appears.

A 2024 record that concealed an anomaly

The $97 billion figure for 2024 was largely driven by a single megaproject: the development of the Ras El-Hekma zone in Egypt, which artificially inflated North Africa's statistics. Strip out that base effect, and the continental decline is less severe than it looks. North Africa remains the hardest hit, with a 56% drop in FDI inflows in 2025.

West Africa bucks the trend

Against the continental grain, West Africa posted a 44% increase in FDI in 2025. Guinea, driven by mining investments exceeding $8 billion, and Nigeria, with around $4 billion in oil projects, led the charge. East Africa recorded modest growth of 12%. By contrast, Southern and Central Africa each fell by 21%, with Central Africa dropping to $4.8 billion.

Morocco growing, but the continent remains underrepresented

Morocco performed well: with $3.33 billion in FDI in 2025, the kingdom posted notable gains that contrast sharply with the regional retreat. Meanwhile, global FDI flows rose 6% to reach $1,600 billion. Africa's 4–6% share of global flows leaves it structurally underrepresented.

Why it matters

The UNCTAD report highlights an encouraging paradox: even as amounts decline, the number of greenfield projects and structured financings remains robust — even increasing in several regions. The message is clear: Africa must shift from chasing headline deals to building pipelines of bankable projects, capable of attracting more diversified investors less dependent on commodities.

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