At its annual meetings held in Bangkok this week, the International Monetary Fund published its Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. The verdict: growth projected at 4.5% in both 2026 and 2027, exceeding the global average. But behind this reassuring figure, the IMF warns of structural debt that is steadily eroding policy space.
4.5%: resilience masking very contrasting trajectories
The 4.5% growth projected by the IMF for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2026 and 2027 is, at face value, a positive signal — it outpaces the expected global average for the same period. But the Fund's economists quickly temper the result: this average "conceals contrasting trajectories."
On one side, WAEMU countries — Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, Benin leading the pack — have maintained growth above 6% for several consecutive years, driven by structural reforms and infrastructure investment. On the other, South Africa has recorded growth below 2% since 2023, weighed down by energy crises and social tensions. Nigeria, Angola and several CEMAC countries are struggling to regain sustained momentum.
The 6–7% threshold: Africa's unmet target
Economists agree on one benchmark: to absorb the annual influx of young workers entering the labour market, Sub-Saharan Africa needs to grow at 6 to 7% per year. The projected 4.5%, however solid in today's global context, is not enough to harness the region's demographic dividend.
In this context, the IMF recommends continuing fiscal adjustment, setting aside commodity revenues during price upswings, protecting vulnerable populations, and creating conditions for stronger private investment.
Debt: over twenty countries in the red zone
The debt picture remains troubling. More than twenty Sub-Saharan countries are classified as over-indebted or at high risk according to joint IMF-World Bank assessments. In several capitals, annual debt service now exceeds combined spending on health and education — a socially unsustainable situation in the medium term.
Bond markets partially reopened in 2024 for Côte d'Ivoire, Benin, Kenya and Senegal, but at rates significantly above those of the previous decade. The security crisis in AES countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) further worsens the outlook for that sub-region.
Why it matters
For Indian Ocean economies, the IMF's outlook is a direct barometer. Mauritius, Madagascar, the Seychelles and the Comoros are part of the Sub-Saharan space: their performance and access to international financing are directly correlated with these regional trends. The overall resilience creates investment opportunities; the rising debt risks call for caution in the public financing strategies of Indian Ocean states.