The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has published updated growth forecasts for Africa. The result: 13 countries on the continent are expected to exceed the symbolic 6% threshold in 2026, driven by infrastructure, digitalisation and foreign direct investment. But the risk of debt distress tempers the enthusiasm.
Thirteen Countries Above 6%
The EIU identifies 13 African economies likely to post growth above 6% this year. West Africa makes up the largest group with seven countries — Senegal, Guinea, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Niger — while East Africa contributes Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. Libya (North Africa) and Mozambique (Southern Africa) complete the top tier.
At the other end of the spectrum, South Africa, the continent’s largest economy, is expected to grow between 1.5% and 3%, confirming the relative slowdown of established major economies compared to the continent’s emerging markets.
Four Drivers, One Major Brake
The EIU identifies four common growth drivers across these countries: infrastructure development (roads, ports, energy), digital transformation, sustained foreign direct investment — particularly in hydrocarbons, renewables and mining in West Africa — and the deepening of regional markets through the AfCFTA.
The brake, however, is systemic: debt has reached “critical levels” in several economies. The EIU flags Ethiopia, Mozambique, Tunisia and Zambia as high-vulnerability cases — countries that paradoxically appear among the most dynamic in terms of growth.
What This Means for the Indian Ocean
Tanzania and Kenya — two important trading partners for Madagascar, Mauritius and the Seychelles — feature in this ranking of the most dynamic economies. This African momentum represents a growing market opportunity for exporters in the region. Madagascar in particular, with its critical mineral, vanilla and cocoa export projects, is directly affected by the depth of these destination markets.
Why It Matters
A two-speed Africa is taking shape: resource- and tech-driven emerging markets advancing at 6% and above, and more mature economies struggling to exceed 3%. For Indian Ocean investors, the EIU’s map of 13 high-growth countries is precisely the kind of indicator to place at the heart of any continental diversification strategy.