Eighteen months after Cyclone Chido, Mayotte's economy is restarting on reconstruction sites. Imports are up 26%, inflation is contained at 1.3%, and a multi-billion euro 2026-2031 programming law commits to rebuilding the archipelago. But the rebound is fragile: unemployment remains high, agriculture is struggling to recover, and structural dependence on public spending persists.
Construction drives the rebound
Post-Chido reconstruction is powering the building and public works sector. Imports reached an unprecedented level of over €300 million, up nearly 26%, driven by construction materials, equipment, and consumer goods for disaster-affected households. Bank credit is rising again, particularly consumer loans financing household repairs.
Contained inflation, food prices under pressure
Inflation averaged 1.3% for the year — below metropolitan France. But pressure remains on food prices in a territory that imports almost all its consumption. Acceleration risks exist: geopolitical tensions and rising maritime costs are exogenous factors difficult to control locally.
The 2026-2031 quinquennial strategy: the state as sole driver
The government has committed a quinquennial reconstruction and development strategy for Mayotte, backed by several billion euros. This programming law aims to modernise infrastructure and reduce the archipelago's medium-term vulnerabilities. But this public-spending dependency is both a safety net and a constraint: without parallel private-sector development, growth will remain tied to budget allocations.
Why it matters
Mayotte remains the most economically and socially vulnerable territory in the Indian Ocean. The 2026 rebound is real but fragile — almost entirely driven by public orders. For the momentum to become sustainable, the challenge is to build a private economic fabric capable of withstanding future climate shocks and unlocking the archipelago's tourism and maritime potential.