Mauritius enters the final quarter of 2026 with growth revised downward, expected between 2.8% and 3%, compared to 3.2% in 2025. Behind a nominally larger GDP — thanks to revised national accounts — the reality is more mixed: weak domestic demand, declining private investment and persistent inflationary pressures.
A first quarter that sets the tone
Real GDP growth capped at +2% in the first quarter of 2026, almost half the +3.4% recorded a year earlier. Inflation stood at 4.9% in August, fuelled by rising energy, transport and shipping costs linked to persistent Middle East tensions. Economists describe the context as a "direct stagflationary shock".
Private investment: the major concern
Statistics Mauritius anticipates a 1.2% real decline in private investment for 2026. SMEs are struggling with difficult access to financing in a high interest rate environment. The manufactured export index had already fallen to 78.1 in 2025, signalling a loss of export market share. Construction remains sluggish.
Tourism holds, financial sector steady
These two pillars are preventing a sharper downturn. Tourist arrivals rose 2.1% year-on-year from January to July 2026, reaching 804,633 visitors. First-half tourist receipts jumped 18%, to Rs 55.9 billion. Financial services and ICT continue to contribute positively, but their structural depth remains insufficient to offset weaknesses elsewhere.
Why this matters
This deceleration reflects a structural vulnerability: a Mauritian economy still too dependent on a few sectors. The economic model reform — diversification into renewables, digital, and high-value-added services — is more urgent than ever. For foreign investors, Mauritius remains attractive, but vigilance is warranted.