The Malagasy government has raised its economic growth projections to 6% for 2026, up from the 4.8% originally written into the finance law. A revision of more than one percentage point signals a more robust dynamic than initially anticipated, driven notably by private investment and extractive sectors.
A Significant Upward Revision
Malagasy authorities have officially adjusted their GDP growth forecast for the 2026 fiscal year. The revised trajectory of 6% represents a +1.2 percentage point gap compared to the 4.8% projected at the time of the initial finance law. This reassessment comes as the government seeks to « attract investors and reassure economic agents, » according to local officials.
For context, Madagascar's growth was projected at 5% for 2025, following 6.1% in 2024. The 2026 trajectory would thus reconnect with previous-year levels, confirming a structural upward trend.
The Drivers Behind the Momentum
Services remain the primary lever, driven by recovering domestic consumption and a tourism rebound. Private investment is accelerating, stimulated by a modernising regulatory environment and infrastructure projects backed by multilateral lenders.
The oil and gas sectors are also becoming a rising driver. Madagascar holds hydrocarbon resources whose exploration and development are progressing, attracting the attention of international majors despite the island's logistical challenges.
Why It Matters
A 6% growth rate in the world's fourth-largest island, home to more than 30 million people, is a strong signal for regional and international investors. Madagascar remains an under-capitalised market relative to its natural resources — arable land, critical minerals, biodiversity, maritime potential — and its geographic position at the crossroads of Indian Ocean trade routes.
For Indian Ocean businesses, this upward revision is a signal not to ignore. The window to enter the Malagasy market is still open, but the most reactive players will position themselves before international competition intensifies.
Sources: Government of Madagascar, Africa24 TV, African Development Bank.