The African Development Bank has published its 2026 country report for Madagascar with an unambiguous finding: the country must mobilise approximately $7.27 billion per year by 2030 to finance its development. A figure that contrasts sharply with the $155 million released by the IMF in September and the $200 million approved by the World Bank in April for transport infrastructure.
Growth at 3% under pressure
The AfDB projects 3.0% growth for Madagascar in 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025. The financing gap is structural: agriculture, services and investment remain the drivers, but infrastructure, energy and logistics constraints hold back the real economy. A rebound to 4.5% is expected in 2027, driven by extractive industries, tourism and telecommunications.
IMF releases $155 million
On 30 September 2026, the IMF's Executive Board completed the 3rd and 4th combined reviews of its programmes with Madagascar (ECF/RSF), enabling a $155 million disbursement. This positive signal reflects the ongoing structural reform trajectory. But measured against annual needs of $7.27 billion, the gap is striking.
The gap between announced financing and real execution
A systemic problem persists: the execution rate for externally financed investments reaches only 20.3%, versus 63.7% for state-financed investments. More than 1,000 billion ariary are reportedly frozen in the financial circuit, blocked by disbursement problems, unfinished studies and unresolved land issues.
Why this matters
Madagascar's challenge is shared by many developing nations: financing is less scarce than the capacity to absorb it efficiently. The AfDB recommends strengthening national financial systems, diversifying financing sources and accelerating implementation of the New African Financial Architecture for Development (NAFAD). For Indian Ocean investors, Madagascar remains a market with strong potential — but on a 3-5 year transformation horizon.