It is a decisive day for Madagascar's public finances. The International Monetary Fund's Executive Board convenes on 30 September 2026 in Washington to review the third and fourth combined reviews of Madagascar's ECF (Extended Credit Facility) and RSF (Resilience and Sustainability Facility) programmes. At stake: approximately $183 million in disbursements on which a significant portion of the country's fiscal balance depends.
A high-stakes dossier
The combined review, initially scheduled earlier this year, was postponed in August due to a disagreement on a central issue: fuel pricing policy at the pump. The Malagasy government had suspended the automatic price adjustment mechanism amid energy market tensions. However, the IMF insists on maintaining this mechanism to protect public finances and limit implicit subsidies.
According to the Finance Minister, Madagascar had fulfilled «the vast majority of the criteria agreed with the IMF», with the exception of this crucial issue. An official waiver request was filed with the Fund for non-compliance with one of the performance criteria — and it is precisely on this waiver, and on the modification of certain criteria, that the Executive Board must now rule.
The structural stakes
Beyond the fuel pricing question, the ECF and RSF programmes pursue deeper objectives: stronger tax revenue mobilisation (Madagascar has one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios on the continent), a turnaround for Jirama (the chronically loss-making state power company) and climate resilience in the face of recurrent cyclones.
The macroeconomic backdrop remains fragile: growth estimated at around 3% in 2026, inflation still elevated at 8.5%, and heavy reliance on external financing. The IMF's decision will also signal confidence to other multilateral donors in the months ahead.
Why it matters
A green light from the IMF on 30 September would unlock substantial funding at a critical point in Madagascar's budget calendar. A rejection or further delay would undermine the credibility of ongoing reforms and risk widening the state's financing gap. Official results are expected in Antananarivo in the early hours of 1 October 2026. For investors active in the country, this decision is a major signal on Madagascar's economic governance trajectory.
Sources: IMF, 2424.mg, Madagascar Tribune, Midi Madagasikara