The Malagasy government has revised its 2026 growth forecast upward to 6%, from the initial 4.8% in the Finance Law. This 1.2 percentage point revision is backed by better-than-expected performance in the oil, gas and services sectors, as well as stronger private investment dynamics.
A confirmed recovery trajectory
The upward revision continues a positive trajectory: Madagascar recorded 6.1% growth in 2024, before a projection of 7.8% for 2025. The 2026 forecast of 6% marks a moderation from 2025's momentum, but remains significantly above the sub-Saharan Africa consensus of around 4% for the same period.
According to Africa24, this performance is mainly driven by expansion in the oil and gas sectors, services growth, rising private investment and a gradual recovery in domestic consumption.
Structural drivers consolidating
Madagascar's oil and gas sector has attracted growing international investor attention for several years. The country holds confirmed hydrocarbon resources, and several exploration projects remain active. Meanwhile, the services sector — particularly information technology and service centres — continues to develop, supported by a young bilingual workforce at competitive cost.
Private investment has also increased, partly stimulated by the Port Sec III project at Toamasina, which aims to make the island a regional logistics hub with $200 million of investment.
Caveats not to overlook
While the government has revised projections upward, some observers note that optimistic communication also serves to signal confidence to markets and investors. Madagascar still faces structural challenges: insufficient infrastructure, vulnerability to cyclones, and fiscal governance that must further consolidate to sustainably anchor foreign investor confidence.
Why it matters
Growth at 6% places Madagascar among Africa's leading performers and strengthens its attractiveness for regional Indian Ocean capital and beyond. For Mauritian, Réunionnaise or Seychellois operators looking to position themselves in high-potential frontier markets, Madagascar represents a first-class opportunity — provided operational risks are assessed with discernment.