Rating agency Fitch has lowered its 2026 growth forecasts for several major East African economies, directly citing the fallout from the Iran-US-Israel conflict on global maritime routes. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil supply, sits at the heart of the revision.
The Revised Figures
Fitch's updated projections show a measured but meaningful deterioration for three of the continent's most dynamic economies:
- Kenya: from 5.2% to 5.0%
- Ethiopia: from 8.2% to 8.0%
- DRC: from 5.7% to 5.2%
The revisions come alongside higher inflation forecasts: Kenya is now expected at 5.5% (up from 4.6%), Ethiopia at 13.5% (up from 11.2%). Across Sub-Saharan Africa, Fitch trimmed the regional growth outlook to 4.2% (from 4.3%).
The Strait of Hormuz: A Critical Chokepoint
The conflict that erupted on February 28, 2026 has put intense pressure on the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow passage handles 20% of global oil supply and 30% of global maritime trade — a critical vulnerability for energy-importing African economies. Any disruption translates into higher oil prices, costlier shipping and widening trade deficits for countries that depend on Gulf imports.
Tanzania: A Case Study in Extreme Exposure
Fitch singles out Tanzania, which sources 62% of its fuel imports and 40% of its fertilisers from Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The agency also flags Tanzania's tourism sector — representing 25% of its service exports — as an additional source of vulnerability if Middle Eastern travel flows slow down.
Why It Matters
For the Indian Ocean, the implications are direct: higher oil prices increase the cost of energy imports for Mauritius, Réunion and Mayotte. Gulf-funded infrastructure projects — very active in the region — could face delays. Conversely, the crisis is accelerating awareness of the need to diversify energy sources. Islands that have invested in solar and wind find themselves, paradoxically, in a structurally stronger position when faced with these external shocks.