In the first quarter of 2026, Kenya's exports grew 10.8% to KSh 306.8 billion. Horticulture — led by cut flowers — reaffirms its position as the engine of the national trade balance, while coffee posts an encouraging 7.5% rebound.
Horticulture and coffee drive exports
Horticulture remains Kenya's top export earner at KSh 62 billion (+10.5%). Cut flowers alone account for KSh 33.2 billion, confirming Kenya's position as the world's leading cut flower exporter to Europe by volume. Coffee rose 7.5% to KSh 16.8 billion, driven by premium market demand. Only tea slipped slightly: -1.7% to KSh 45.3 billion, hit by competition and price volatility. Apparel also gained ground, up 10.2% to KSh 15.9 billion.
Africa becomes Kenya's top export market
A standout result: Africa is now Kenya's primary export destination, with revenues up 25.1% to KSh 127.9 billion. This reflects the rise of intra-African trade driven by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and positions Nairobi as a growing hub for East and Southern Africa.
But the trade deficit widens
The flip side: imports jumped 17.1% to KSh 744.9 billion, pushing the trade deficit to KSh 438.1 billion from KSh 359.3 billion in Q1 2025. The wheat import bill nearly ninefold to KSh 22.3 billion on higher global prices. Oil imports reached KSh 143.7 billion, industrial machinery KSh 86.3 billion and chemical fertilisers KSh 30 billion. Asia supplies 72.6% of Kenyan imports, with China increasing shipments by 29.2%.
Why it matters
Kenya's Q1 2026 export performance confirms the country's agricultural competitiveness and solid export market reach. But dependence on energy and food imports remains a structural vulnerability. For Indian Ocean players, Kenya is a critical trade partner and a leading indicator of broader East African economic dynamics.