Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell 9.7% in the second quarter of 2026 in Mauritius, according to quarterly national accounts released on 30 September by Statistics Mauritius. The figure raises a red flag for an economy hoping to accelerate after a sluggish Q1 at +1.7%.
Machinery and vehicles in freefall
The hardest-hit component was machinery and equipment, down 16.8%. Purchases of passenger cars collapsed by 65% over the quarter, while other transport equipment fell 35.4%. Construction also contracted: -3.7% overall, with non-residential buildings down 13.5%.
A two-speed recovery
Paradoxically, Mauritius' GDP grew 3% in Q2 2026 on an annual basis. Growth was driven by health and social work (+18.9%), education (+9.3%), public administration (+7.9%) and finance and insurance (+4.5%). Hotels and restaurants contracted 1.3%, and export-oriented enterprises fell 6.9%. Exports of goods and services rose 2.6%, led by services (+8%), while imports fell 10.2%.
Statistics Mauritius also carried out a major GDP rebasing, shifting the reference year from 2006 to 2023. The 2023 GDP figure is now set at 695.2 billion rupees (versus 637 billion previously), a 9.1% upward revision. The rebasing notably incorporates the merchandising activities of Global Business Companies (GBCs), valued at nearly 20 billion rupees.
2026 outlook under pressure
For the full year 2026, Statistics Mauritius forecasts growth of 3% — down from 3.5% in 2025. Real investment is projected to fall 1.1%, with private investment at -0.8% and public investment at -2.3%. Final consumption growth slows to 2.2%. Nominal GDP for 2026 is estimated at 873.1 billion rupees. The Bank of Mauritius holds its key rate at 4.75%, raised by 25 basis points in May and kept unchanged since.
Key sectors expected to support the rest of the year include finance and insurance, commerce, transport, ICT and renewable energy. Main risks highlighted by economists: rising oil prices, Middle East tensions, weak European demand and rupee volatility.
Why it matters
Such a sharp decline in private investment — particularly in equipment and vehicles — is a worrying leading indicator. It signals that Mauritian firms are deferring expansion spending amid global uncertainty and high costs. Over time, this weighs on the country's productive capacity and calls into question its ability to return to sustained growth beyond 3%.
Sources: Statistics Mauritius (30 September 2026), ionnews.mu, allAfrica.com