Mauritius enters the fourth quarter of 2026 with growth revised downward, to between 2.8% and 3% according to economists, from 3.2% in 2025. Inflation at 4.9% in August and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East paint a concerning picture for the final quarter.
The Slowdown in Figures
Real GDP in the first quarter of 2026 grew just 2%, compared to 3.4% a year earlier. Q3 national accounts are not yet available. Private investment is expected to decline by 1.2% in real terms for the year, according to Statistics Mauritius. The Bank of Mauritius raised its key rate by 25 basis points in May to 4.75%, then held in August amid uncertainty.
The Double Bind: Inflation and Weak Demand
Economist Manisha Dookhony puts inflation at around 5%. Economist Sameer Sharma identifies the root cause: « A direct stagflationary shock » tied to rising energy and logistics costs driven by Middle East tensions. The manufacturing export index fell to 78.1 in 2025, signalling eroding industrial competitiveness.
Tourism: The Sole Bright Spot
From January to July 2026, tourist arrivals rose 2.1% to 804,633 visitors. First-half tourism receipts jumped 18% to Rs 55.9 billion. The revised annual target is set at 1.47 million arrivals. Financial services, ICT/BPO and renewable energy projects are also cited as potential growth levers.
Why It Matters
For decision-makers and investors active in Mauritius, the combination of inflation and deceleration signals that the post-Covid recovery is now behind the country. Sectors exposed to international trade — manufacturing, logistics — will need to adapt to a durably higher-cost environment. The Bank of Mauritius' ability to steer monetary policy between supporting growth and controlling inflation will be decisive for 2027 prospects.