Statistics Mauritius published its revised national accounts on Monday, with a major upward restatement of historical GDP and, simultaneously, confirmation of a slowdown in growth for 2026. A «bigger» economy on paper, but one that is structurally decelerating.
2023 GDP revised up by 9.1%
The main change in this publication is methodological: Statistics Mauritius has shifted its reference year (from 2018 to 2023) and incorporated results from the 2023 Census of Economic Activities, along with the System of National Accounts 2025 standards. The result: the 2023 nominal GDP rises from Rs 637.0 billion to Rs 695.2 billion — an increase of Rs 58.2 billion, or +9.1%. The incorporation of international trade activities from the Global Business sector contributes around Rs 20 billion to this revision.
This is not new wealth: the revision reflects better statistical capture of the real economy, not additional economic performance.
2026 growth projected at 3%
Projections for 2026 confirm the slowdown observed at the start of the year. Real GDP growth is expected at 3.0% — compared to 3.5% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2024. In nominal terms, GDP should reach Rs 873.1 billion this year, with GDP per capita estimated at Rs 703,970.
Investment dips 1.1% in real terms, driven by a decline in public investment (-2.3%) and a slight pullback in private investment (-0.8%). Final consumption also slows to +2.2%.
Drivers: finance, trade, tourism
Financial and insurance services remain the top contributor to value-added growth (+0.5 points), followed by trade (+0.4 points) and transport (+0.3 points). The island expects to welcome 1,470,000 tourists in 2026, a rising figure whose contribution to overall growth remains moderate.
Why it matters
Mauritius enters Q4 2026 in an unusual configuration: an officially larger GDP, but a growth dynamic that is fading — 3% versus 4.2% two years ago. The GDP revision is welcome news for debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios, but it does not mask the real slowdown. Policymakers will need to balance fiscal consolidation — with public investment falling — against the need to sustain growth in an uncertain global environment.