Statistics Mauritius completed a major rebasing of its national accounts in September 2026, shifting the reference year from 2018 to 2023. The result: nominal GDP is revised upward by 3.6% to 9.4% depending on the year — yet the 3% growth target for 2026 remains fragile amid global uncertainties.
An Officially Larger Economy
The rebasing incorporates recommendations from the 2025 System of National Accounts (SNA 2025), supported by IMF technical assistance. In concrete terms, Mauritius's nominal GDP for 2025 rises from MUR 743 billion to MUR 810 billion — a 9.1% upward revision. For 2026, Statistics Mauritius projects nominal GDP at MUR 873 billion.
This revision does not fundamentally alter real growth rates: 2023 moves from 4.7% to 4.5%, 2024 from 4.9% to 4.2%, and 2025 from 3.2% to 3.5%. The Mauritian economy remains on a path of gradual deceleration.
3%: An Optimistic Target, Says the IMF
Statistics Mauritius targets 3% growth for 2026, a figure that was progressively revised upward during the year (2.3% in March, 2.4% in June, 3% at end of September). The IMF, however, forecasts around 2% — a significant gap reflecting different readings of the global economic environment.
Economist Manisha Dookhony highlights inflationary pressures weighing on households: rising loan repayments, a high cost of living, and compressed consumption. These factors mechanically reduce VAT revenues and squeeze Mauritius's primary GDP driver.
Mixed Signals Across Key Sectors
The 2026 sectoral outlook is mixed. Agriculture (+4.2%) and information technology (+5%) show solid prospects. Finance should grow by 4.7%. Tourism, however, is slowing: accommodation and food services are expected to grow by only 2.2%, with 1.47 million tourists projected. Construction, after a -2.1% decline in 2025, should see a modest recovery of +0.9%.
Falling vehicle sales, textile factory closures, and difficulties in construction — following a major player's collapse — all support the IMF's more cautious scenario.
Why It Matters
This rebasing goes beyond a mere accounting revision. It changes the international perception of the size and strength of the Mauritian economy, with implications for debt ratios, credit ratings, and investor attractiveness. The divergence between government projections (3%) and IMF forecasts (~2%) calls for close monitoring of consumption and business confidence indicators in the coming weeks. Mauritius enters Q4 2026 with a larger economy on paper — but a real economy that must navigate a still-uncertain global environment.
Sources: Statistics Mauritius / newsmoris.com / allAfrica.com / IMF Article IV Mauritius 2026