The African Development Bank (AfDB) has just released its 2026 Mauritius Country Report. The assessment is clear: the island is on course toward Vision 2050, but the road ahead is narrow and demands unprecedented financial mobilisation.
Growth Slowing Before Rebounding
The AfDB projects growth of 3% in 2026 — a slowdown compared to previous years — before recovering to 3.8% in 2027. The engine remains the trifecta of financial services, wholesale and retail trade, and tourism. In 2025, Mauritius recorded a historic high of 1.44 million tourist arrivals.
On the price front, inflation is expected to accelerate to 5.7% in 2026, breaching the Bank of Mauritius's 2–5% target band, before easing to 3.9% in 2027.
Public Finances Under Scrutiny
The budget deficit is forecast at 6% of GDP in 2026, narrowing progressively to 3.7% by 2027. The AfDB sets a critical milestone: public debt must fall below 80% of GDP by 2029 to restore the government's fiscal headroom.
Structural Bottlenecks to Remove
The report identifies several obstacles threatening the path to high-income status: labour market rigidities, skills mismatches, an aging population, deficits in water, energy and port logistics, and digital infrastructure gaps. These structural weaknesses drag on productivity and undermine international competitiveness.
Why It Matters
Mauritius aims to join the high-income economy club by 2050. But the AfDB is unequivocal: "large-scale mobilisation of development financing" is essential. Without deep reforms in labour markets, infrastructure and digitalisation, Vision 2050 risks remaining a perpetually receding horizon. The report arrives as the government consults citizens on the country's strategic priorities.
Source: African Development Bank, 2026 Mauritius Country Report, August 2026.