According to the International Monetary Fund's 2026 Article IV report, the Union of the Comoros shows solid economic recovery: real GDP growth is estimated at 3.8% in 2025 and projected to reach 4.1% in 2026. Inflation, which peaked at 7.3% in spring 2025, fell back to 1.9% year-on-year by autumn. These figures nevertheless mask structural fragilities the IMF considers concerning.
A fragile banking sector: NPL ratio at 13.8%
The report's main warning concerns the financial sector: non-performing loans stand at 13.8% of total outstanding credit — a high level that limits banks' capacity to finance the real economy. The IMF recommends accelerating resolution of doubtful debts and strengthening sector supervision, particularly for microfinance institutions that play a key role in financial inclusion across the archipelago.
Controlled debt, fiscal deficit to watch
Comorian public debt stands at 32.9% of GDP — a relatively low ratio by regional standards. However, the domestic primary fiscal deficit reached -2.3% of GDP in 2025, weighed down by exceptional airport employee severance payments (0.6% of GDP). The IMF recommends additional revenue mobilisation equivalent to 0.7% of GDP from 2026.
Governance at the heart of the Extended Credit Facility
The Comoros benefit from IMF support under an Extended Credit Facility (ECF), with tranche disbursements conditional on governance reforms, public financial management improvements and anti-corruption measures. Exports remain concentrated in cloves, ylang-ylang and vanilla, with heavy dependence on food imports (particularly rice), leaving the archipelago vulnerable to external commodity price shocks.
Why it matters
The Comorian archipelago holds a 160,000 km² exclusive economic zone with largely untapped blue economy potential. Its active diaspora represents one of the main sources of foreign exchange. Consolidating macroeconomic stability and cleaning up the banking sector are indispensable prerequisites for attracting the investment Comoros needs to diversify an economy still heavily exposed to climate and trade shocks.