The International Monetary Fund has published its 2026 Article IV report on the Union of the Comoros, reporting accelerating growth of 4.1% for 2026 and controlled public debt of 32.9% of GDP. The IMF nonetheless makes several urgent recommendations on fiscal reform and governance.
A Recovery Driven by Public Investment
After an estimate of 3.8% in 2025, the archipelago's growth is expected to accelerate to 4.1% of real GDP in 2026, according to IMF projections. This dynamic is driven primarily by public investment and a gradual recovery in domestic credit. Inflation is decelerating sharply to 2.4% in 2026, after 3.5% in 2025 — a welcome stabilisation for Comorian households. The fiscal balance is also improving: the deficit is expected to narrow from -2.3% of GDP in 2025 to -1.4% in 2026. Reserves remain comfortable at 8.4 months of imports, and external debt stays controlled at 27% of GDP.
Fiscal Reforms Deemed Urgent
The picture is not without shadow, however. Public revenues remain low at only 17.2% of GDP, insufficient to finance development needs. The IMF recommends a structural increase of 0.7 percentage points of GDP in revenues through permanent fiscal measures. Institutionally, the Fund calls for strengthening budget transparency, operationalising the postal bank to improve financial inclusion, recapitalising the banking sector, and accelerating anti-corruption and asset disclosure frameworks for public officials.
Risks to Monitor
Risks remain tilted to the downside: climate vulnerability, dependence on diaspora remittances, and global uncertainties weigh on the outlook. Fiscal space remains limited, and the regional context — including recurring political tensions — adds a hard-to-anticipate variable.
Why It Matters
Comoros is moving at a measured pace but in the right direction. Controlled debt and 4% growth form a solid base for attracting regional investors. The ball is in the government's court: the fiscal and governance reforms recommended by the IMF are the prerequisite for the archipelago to finance its own development over the long term.