For the first time in the continent's history, intra-African trade is set to exceed $230 billion in 2026 — a 10% increase from $210 billion in 2025. This is the central projection of Afreximbank's African Trade and Economic Outlook 2026, published in March 2026 — described as optimistic but achievable provided political stability holds and global trade negotiations do not collapse.
The Growth Drivers
Three structural factors explain the acceleration. First, the gradual implementation of the AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area), with the elimination of non-tariff barriers along major trade corridors. Second, the entry into force of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), projected to cut foreign exchange costs by 20 to 30% — a historic brake on continental trade. Third, adoption of the AfCFTA digital trade protocol, which opens the door to a pan-African digital economy.
By sector, manufacturing and agri-food are set to account for 48 to 50% of intra-African flows in 2026, up from 46% in 2025. This rise of value-added sectors offsets declining commodity flows. Southern Africa remains the primary driver, but East and West Africa are accelerating their participation.
Persistent Challenges
The projection remains conditional. Political stability in key regions such as the Sahel or the Horn of Africa is a prerequisite. South Africa's instability — with municipal funding freezes in Johannesburg and other cities — is a risk factor for the continent's largest economy. And the global trade environment, marked by geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies, can constrain Africa's room for manoeuvre.
At the AfCFTA forum held in Togo, an African Trade and Distribution Company was launched — a vehicle designed to smooth cross-border transactions and reduce dependence on non-African intermediaries.
Why It Matters
For Indian Ocean businesses and investors, the rise of intra-African trade represents a first-order opportunity. The logistics corridors that pass through Mauritius, Madagascar or the Seychelles gain new strategic value. The Indian Ocean region holds all the cards to position itself as the interface between African flows and Asian and European markets — provided it acts now.