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# [MAURITIUS] Final quarter under pressure: growth forecast revised to 2.8–3% for 2026
- URL: https://businessoi.media/en/maurice-dernier-trimestre-sous-pression-la-croissance-revue-a-2-8-3-en-2026-en/
- Published: 2026-10-23T02:53:05.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-23T02:53:05.000Z
- Description: Mauritius's economy is stalling: 2.8–3% growth expected for 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025. Private investment declining, inflation at 4.9%, but tourism holds firm.
- Author: Emmanuel TAOCHY
- Tags: Maurice, Économie, finance, Revue matinale, #en

Mauritius's economic growth slowed sharply in the first quarter of 2026, with real GDP rising only 2%, compared with 3.4% a year earlier. For the full year, economists now project between 2.8% and 3%, below the 3.2% recorded in 2025.

Several indicators confirm this slowdown. Private investment is expected to decline 1.2% in real terms, according to Statistics Mauritius. Inflation remains elevated at 4.9% (August 2026), prompting the Bank of Mauritius to raise its key rate by 25 basis points in May to 4.75%, before holding it at the August meeting.

## Tourism: the only real pillar

In this challenging environment, the tourism sector stands out. From January to July 2026, arrivals grew 2.1% year-on-year to 804,633 visitors. First-half tourism revenues jumped 18% to Rs 55.9 billion. The target of 1.47 million arrivals for Q4 alone remains within reach.

Financial services and information technology provide the other main support, even as the construction sector is described as sluggish by analysts. The manufacturing export index fell to 78.1 in 2025.

## Structural reforms needed

Reaching 4% growth would require structural changes: simpler business permits, better SME access to finance, and investment in health and education. High borrowing costs, rigid labour markets, and rising energy and freight costs linked to Middle East tensions are identified as the main brakes on activity.

## Why it matters

Mauritius's slowdown comes amid a difficult regional context. Growth capped at 3% is insufficient to absorb employment pressures or reduce the gap between a premium-service economy and a local SME sector squeezed by rising costs. The 2026-2027 budget will be the real test of government ambitions.

*Source: Defimedia.info, Statistics Mauritius, Bank of Mauritius — October 2026.*