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# [MAURITIUS] Growth Slows to 2.8%: Inflation at 4.9% and a 'Stagflationary Shock' in Q4
- URL: https://businessoi.media/en/maurice-croissance-ralentie-a-2-8-inflation-a-4-9-et-choc-stagflationniste-au-quatrieme-trimestre-en/
- Published: 2026-10-08T02:49:50.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-08T02:49:50.000Z
- Description: Mauritius revises 2026 growth to 2.8-3%, with August inflation at 4.9% and a direct stagflationary shock linked to Middle East tensions. Private investment down 1.2%.
- Author: Emmanuel TAOCHY
- Tags: Maurice, Économie, Finances publiques, Revue matinale, #en

Mauritius enters the fourth quarter of 2026 with growth revised downward, to between **2.8% and 3%** according to economists, from 3.2% in 2025\. Inflation at **4.9% in August** and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East paint a concerning picture for the final quarter.

## The Slowdown in Figures

Real GDP in the first quarter of 2026 grew just **2%**, compared to 3.4% a year earlier. Q3 national accounts are not yet available. Private investment is expected to decline by **1.2% in real terms** for the year, according to Statistics Mauritius. The Bank of Mauritius raised its key rate by 25 basis points in May to **4.75%**, then held in August amid uncertainty.

## The Double Bind: Inflation and Weak Demand

Economist Manisha Dookhony puts inflation at around **5%**. Economist Sameer Sharma identifies the root cause: « A direct stagflationary shock » tied to rising energy and logistics costs driven by Middle East tensions. The manufacturing export index fell to **78.1 in 2025**, signalling eroding industrial competitiveness.

## Tourism: The Sole Bright Spot

From January to July 2026, tourist arrivals rose **2.1%** to 804,633 visitors. First-half tourism receipts jumped **18% to Rs 55.9 billion**. The revised annual target is set at **1.47 million arrivals**. Financial services, ICT/BPO and renewable energy projects are also cited as potential growth levers.

## Why It Matters

For decision-makers and investors active in Mauritius, the combination of inflation and deceleration signals that the post-Covid recovery is now behind the country. Sectors exposed to international trade — manufacturing, logistics — will need to adapt to a durably higher-cost environment. The Bank of Mauritius' ability to steer monetary policy between supporting growth and controlling inflation will be decisive for 2027 prospects.