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# [MAURITIUS] At 3% growth, can Mauritius shift to a higher economic gear?
- URL: https://businessoi.media/en/maurice-a-3-de-croissance-maurice-peut-elle-changer-de-modele-economique-en/
- Published: 2026-10-10T08:47:09.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-10T08:47:09.000Z
- Description: Mauritius is set to grow at 3% in 2026, with private investment down 0.8% and public debt at 87% of GDP according to the IMF. The country faces a critical debate about whether its current growth rate is enough to transform its economic model.
- Author: Emmanuel TAOCHY
- Tags: Maurice, Flash de mi-journée, Économie, finance, #en

**Port Louis, October 10, 2026** — The latest Statistics Mauritius estimates confirm it: the Mauritian economy will grow by **3%** in 2026, down from 3.5% in 2025 and a revised 4.2% in 2024\. This steady deceleration is reigniting a fundamental debate: at what growth rate can Mauritius genuinely transform its economic model?

### A broad-based slowdown

Nominal GDP is expected to reach around **MUR 873 billion** — a nominal gain of 7.8% driven more by inflation than real wealth creation. Investment is contracting across the board: private investment is set to fall by **0.8%** and public investment by **2.3%**, reducing the investment share of GDP from 21% to 20.2%. Consumer spending remains positive (+2.2% in real terms) but is slowing under the weight of energy costs and imported goods prices.

### Debt as the binding constraint

The IMF estimates that Mauritius's public debt will hit **87% of GDP** by end-June 2026, with a budget deficit forecast at 3.7%. Moody's keeps the country at Baa3 with a negative outlook, citing uncertainty over **MUR 10.6 billion in revenues linked to the Chagos Deal** — a payment that remains conditional.

### The productivity challenge

At the heart of the debate: total factor productivity has grown at just **2.4% per year on average since 2010**, versus 4.2% for comparable upper-middle-income economies. High-value sectors — digital, AI, biotechnology — are growing (ICT +5%) but remain too marginal to move the needle on the overall economy.

### Why it matters

Economists broadly agree that a minimum of **4% to 5%** real growth is needed to finance the transition to a higher-value economic model and generate enough quality jobs. Comparisons with Malta, Cyprus and Seychelles — which combine diversification with lower debt and deficits — show it is achievable. But time is pressing: with the 2026-2027 budget decisions expected in the coming weeks, the Mauritian government faces a difficult trade-off between fiscal consolidation and reviving investment.