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# [MADAGASCAR] S&P Global Affirms B- Rating with Stable Outlook: Resilience Margins Hold
- URL: https://businessoi.media/en/madagascar-s-p-global-confirme-la-note-b-avec-perspective-stable-les-marges-de-resilience-tiennent-en/
- Published: 2026-08-06T08:43:48.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-06T08:43:48.000Z
- Description: S&P Global Ratings affirms Madagascar's B- sovereign rating with a stable outlook in August 2026. GDP growth projected at 3.1%, public debt at 40.2% of GDP, forex reserves above six months of imports.
- Author: Emmanuel TAOCHY
- Tags: Madagascar, Économie, Finances publiques, Flash de mi-journée, #en

S&P Global Ratings confirmed Madagascar's B-/B sovereign rating in early August 2026, with a stable outlook. The decision was expected, but it maps out a precise trajectory: fundamentals holding up, risks building on the margins.

### The Numbers Behind the Stability

S&P projects **3.1% GDP growth in 2026**, accelerating to 4.2% by 2029, driven by mining investment, infrastructure development and a consolidating services sector. Public debt is estimated at **40.2% of GDP in 2026** — manageable by the agency's assessment, though it is expected to rise to 44.2% by 2029\. The budget deficit should remain at 4.7% of GDP this year before gradually declining toward 4% by 2029\. Inflation, however, remains elevated at **8.4% in 2026**.

### What Protects Madagascar

S&P points to three supporting factors. First, foreign exchange reserves exceeding **six months of import coverage** at end-2025 — a solid buffer against external shocks. Second, continued support from international donors with renewed commitments. Third, a favorable debt structure that is primarily concessional, long-term and carries relatively low interest charges. The strength of Madagascar's agricultural sector — rice, maize, cassava — is also cited as a structural shock-absorber.

### The Risks the Agency Is Watching

S&P does not downplay the vulnerabilities. Political uncertainty is dampening private investment decisions. Dependence on food and energy imports leaves Madagascar exposed to global commodity shocks. And Jirama, the state power utility, remains a key public finance pressure point that the agency is closely tracking as a potential rating trigger.

### Why It Matters

A stable sovereign rating directly determines the cost of international financing and the government's ability to access capital markets. For Madagascar — actively courting private investment in its mining sector, infrastructure and tourism — the B- affirmation stabilizes the framework, even if it does not yet open the door to broader market access. The next review will be closely watched, particularly if Jirama requires a significant budget injection.