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# [MADAGASCAR] Growth revised to 6% in 2026: the government beats its own budget forecast
- URL: https://businessoi.media/en/madagascar-croissance-revisee-a-6-en-2026-letat-depasse-sa-propre-prevision-de-la-loi-de-finances-en/
- Published: 2026-11-07T02:52:32.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-07T02:52:32.000Z
- Description: The Malagasy government revises its 2026 growth forecast from 4.8% to 6% — a 1.2-point jump tied to national economic revival conferences. Risks: AGOA uncertainty, geopolitics, commodity prices.
- Author: Emmanuel TAOCHY
- Tags: Madagascar, Économie, Investissement, Revue matinale, #en

Madagascar's Minister of Economy and Finance, Herinjatovo Ramiarison, announced on national public media that the growth forecast for 2026 has been revised to **6%**, up from 4.8% in the initial budget law. A 1.2-point increase that, if confirmed, would place Madagascar among Africa's most dynamic economies this year.

## Outpacing the budget law

The revision is significant: moving from 4.8% to 6% represents a quarter-acceleration against the initial trajectory. The minister attributes it to several converging levers: an improvement in relations between the state and the private sector, restored confidence among technical and financial partners, and the momentum generated by the **National Economic Revival Conferences** (Assises nationales).

These conferences, which brought together public and private stakeholders, are expected to produce a structured, operational recovery plan — whose early effects are already embedded in the updated forecast. A revised budget law is scheduled for mid-year to recalibrate the trajectory and monitor budget execution on both revenue and expenditure sides.

## Risks not to be underestimated

The budget law itself identifies several factors that could disrupt this momentum: uncertainty around the renewal of **AGOA** (African Growth and Opportunity Act), global geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility — on which a significant share of Malagasy exports depends.

Access to the US market via AGOA is particularly strategic for the textile sector, the country's largest industrial employer. Any disruption to this trade corridor could quickly erode the expected growth gains.

## Why it matters

A 6% growth rate in Madagascar, if realised, would send a strong signal to the entire Indian Ocean basin. Madagascar is a market of over 28 million people and a natural neighbour of Réunion, Mayotte, the Comoros and Mauritius. An accelerating economy creates investment, export and partnership opportunities that regional businesses would do well to seize before the window closes.

Regional actors should closely track the progress of the National Conferences and the publication of the recovery plan, which will specify the priority sectors open to private investment.

*Sources: Minister Ramiarison / 2424.mg, Madagascar initial budget law 2026, November 2026.*