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# [KENYA / AFRICA] Strait of Hormuz Tensions Drive Fitch to Cut East Africa Growth Forecasts
- URL: https://businessoi.media/en/kenya-afrique-detroit-dormuz-sous-tension-fitch-revise-a-la-baisse-les-previsions-de-lafrique-de-lest-en/
- Published: 2026-09-08T02:47:08.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-08T02:47:08.000Z
- Description: Fitch cuts Kenya (5%), Ethiopia (8%) and DRC (5.2%) growth forecasts as the Iran-US-Israel conflict strains the Strait of Hormuz. Inflation is picking up again across East Africa.
- Author: Emmanuel TAOCHY
- Tags: Kenya, Afrique, Économie, finance, Revue matinale, #en

**Rating agency Fitch has lowered its 2026 growth forecasts for several major East African economies**, directly citing the fallout from the Iran-US-Israel conflict on global maritime routes. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil supply, sits at the heart of the revision.

## The Revised Figures

Fitch's updated projections show a measured but meaningful deterioration for three of the continent's most dynamic economies:

- **Kenya**: from 5.2% to **5.0%**
- **Ethiopia**: from 8.2% to **8.0%**
- **DRC**: from 5.7% to **5.2%**

The revisions come alongside higher inflation forecasts: Kenya is now expected at **5.5%** (up from 4.6%), Ethiopia at **13.5%** (up from 11.2%). Across Sub-Saharan Africa, Fitch trimmed the regional growth outlook to **4.2%** (from 4.3%).

## The Strait of Hormuz: A Critical Chokepoint

The conflict that erupted on February 28, 2026 has put intense pressure on the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow passage handles **20% of global oil supply** and **30% of global maritime trade** — a critical vulnerability for energy-importing African economies. Any disruption translates into higher oil prices, costlier shipping and widening trade deficits for countries that depend on Gulf imports.

## Tanzania: A Case Study in Extreme Exposure

Fitch singles out Tanzania, which sources **62% of its fuel imports and 40% of its fertilisers** from Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The agency also flags Tanzania's tourism sector — representing **25% of its service exports** — as an additional source of vulnerability if Middle Eastern travel flows slow down.

## Why It Matters

For the Indian Ocean, the implications are direct: higher oil prices increase the cost of energy imports for Mauritius, Réunion and Mayotte. Gulf-funded infrastructure projects — very active in the region — could face delays. Conversely, the crisis is accelerating awareness of the need to diversify energy sources. Islands that have invested in solar and wind find themselves, paradoxically, in a structurally stronger position when faced with these external shocks.