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# [KENYA / AFRICA] Growth accelerating to 5.3% in 2027: Central Bank of Kenya upgrades its forecasts
- URL: https://businessoi.media/en/kenya-afrique-croissance-a-5-3-en-2027-la-banque-centrale-du-kenya-revoit-ses-previsions-a-la-hausse-en/
- Published: 2026-10-11T08:46:28.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-11T08:46:28.000Z
- Description: The Central Bank of Kenya projects 5.3% growth in 2027. Private credit rebounds to +10.6%, inflation stays within target at 6.8%, and foreign exchange reserves reach $14.7 billion.
- Author: Emmanuel TAOCHY
- Tags: Kenya, Afrique, Économie, Flash de mi-journée, #en

The **Central Bank of Kenya (CBK)** raised its growth forecasts at its Monetary Policy Committee meeting on **8 October 2026**. Governor Andrew Kamau announced an expected **acceleration to 5.3% in 2027**, up from 5.0% estimated for 2026 and 4.6% recorded in 2025\. The benchmark rate was held at **8.75%**, signalling cautious confidence in the economic trajectory.

## A solid Q1 2026

The upward revision is grounded in improving fundamentals. In the first quarter of 2026, the Kenyan economy grew **5.3% year-on-year**, compared with 4.9% in Q1 2025\. Services — the gateway to digitisation — are projected at **5.6% for 2026 and 5.9% in 2027**. Industry, driven by affordable housing and public-private partnerships, is expected at 5.2%, while agriculture is projected at 3.0%.

## Private credit rebound and inflation in check

Credit to the private sector rebounded to **+10.6% in September 2026**, after contracting 2.9% in January 2025\. The recovery reflects normalising financial conditions: average lending rates have fallen since the start of the year, and the **non-performing loans ratio** improved to **13.9%** from 17.6% in August 2025.

Inflation stands at **6.8% in September 2026**, within the CBK's target band of 2.5 to 7.5%. The rise is driven mainly by processed food products. **Foreign exchange reserves** stand at $14.7 billion, representing 5.9 months of import cover — a reassuring buffer for the country's external stability.

## External risks to watch

The CBK flags several risk factors: the Middle East conflict is weighing on fuel costs and logistics; global trade uncertainty and the war in Ukraine are dampening expectations; and a potential El Niño episode could disrupt agriculture. Global inflation has been revised upwards to **4.7% in 2026**. The current account deficit is also expected to widen to **3.2% of GDP** in 2026, due to higher oil imports.

## Why it matters

Kenya is one of East Africa's economic engines, and its growth forecasts directly influence investment decisions across the region. An acceleration to 5.3% in 2027, driven by digital services and more accommodative credit conditions, sends a positive signal to institutional investors and Indian Ocean partners.

*Source: CBK Monetary Policy Committee — statement of 8 October 2026 / People Daily Kenya*